There has been a ton of controversy kicked up at the fact that the Sixers are fielding a team that has absolutely zero chance to win any meaningful games. You can lose all the games you want, but if it doesn’t eventually turn around and the team starts winning, then what’s the point? That’s the main issue that many people have with the Sixers’ plan. This team doesn’t seem to be able to turn it around and start winning anytime soon. The franchise cornerstone is a big man who has yet to be suit up in the NBA after being drafted due to injury concerns in C Joel Embiid. Their second best prospect is in Europe for at least the rest of this season and next season in PF Dario Saric. Their third best shot at a franchise player was just traded in MCW. Their fourth best shot cannot play offense in C Nerlens Noel. I can keep going, but you get the point. The Sixers seem to be playing the franchise superstar roulette wheel, continually putting it all on 00 and hoping it pays off with the next big thing. I can understand the concerns with this approach, but given how the game of basketball is played at the NBA level, it’s near impossible to win a championship without three players within the top 20% of the league in Statistical Plus-Minus (SPM). Sixers GM Sam Hinkie realizes this, and he’s doing everything he can to stack the deck in his favor to increase his odds of landing those caliber players.
Dallas Mavericks Owner Mark Cuban brings up a great point in that stock piling so many draft picks for one draft by its very definition devalues those picks (every team only has 13 spots, regardless of how many draft picks), but the Sixers are continuing to stockpile away anyway. The second round of the NBA draft has accurately been compared to playing penny stocks, and Hinkie sees these low risk moves as yet another chance as a huge reward, regardless of how long the odds are. Even if the player doesn’t play for the Sixers next year, Hinkie can try to use those extra picks for players that they can store abroad or in the D-League (such as SG Jordan McRae, who’s currently playing very well in the Australian League).
This is where it becomes a bit of a catch-22. You want to win eventually, but in order to do that, you need to have players that can lose now. Because if you’re going to lose, then you want to lose in such a spectacular way that you have that 25% chance at the first overall pick. But it’s hard to lose with quality basketball players. But you want the best chances at the best pick you can get. See the problem? Tankapalooza is a poker game followed by a spin of the roulette wheel (read as: it’s hard to win). Hinkie is trying to get the best cards he possibly can, and he’s not going to show his hand until he thinks he can win the biggest possible pot. MCW was a decent hand, but Hinkie saw the Lakers draft pick as a better one, so he pulled the trigger. Especially given the fact that point guard is the deepest and most replaceable position in the league today, I think Hinkie made the right move. MCW could develop into a nice player. He certainly seems to have a solid skillset, but I don’t know if he’s ever going to be the superstar that Hinkie covets, or even be one of those magic three top 20% players. It was simple really: Hinkie felt that he had a better chance of obtaining a future impact player with the Lakers draft pick than with MCW. He can find another point guard.
Still, as I said earlier, all of this losing has to turn around at some point. Otherwise, it’s just losing for the sake of losing, and that’s completely unacceptable. Here’s what I think Hinkie’s end game is, and I think it’s coming soon. I think even Hinkie realizes you need to start building a winner eventually, and that starts with Embiid. The Sixers are slow-playing his rehab because there’s absolutely no point to him risking injury in this lost season. Embiid, if healthy, has the potential to be an immediate impact player on both ends of the floor, but just Embiid is not enough (as I said earlier, three is the magic number. There’s math and stuff that supports that. Actually click the link this time). You need to surround him with other players who can put this team in a position to win at the highest level. There’s one player in this upcoming draft that stands out as a player who has that kind of potential: Duke C Jahlil Okafor. Make no mistake: despite the fact that Sixers have both Embiid and Nerlens, if they get the first pick, they are taking Okafor. Period. He’s the most valuable asset in the draft and the Sixers are in the market for valuable assets. Honestly, I think the Sixers are going to try to trade Nerlens this offseason anyway (this year’s draft class is stocked with potential impact bigs). Here’s the thing with Nerlens: he has the potential to be a truly great defensive player. He blocks shots at a prolific rate and he’s only getting better. He has the lateral quickness to switch off pick & rolls and stay with guards. He has the length to develop into a very good post defender (still some concerns that he can get bullied down there though). He plays passing lanes well. He’s a good defensive player. Sadly, because of his lack of any meaningful offensive game (and lack of promise to really ever develop one), Nerlens will probably always be a net negative from an SPM standpoint. And if Hinkie thinks Nerlens’ lack of an offensive game will always cause him to be a net negative, he’s going to move him (see: MCW). Maybe as part of a package to get the #1 pick if the ping pong balls hate them again (you mean to tell me a team’s NOT listening to an offer of Nerlens, the Sixers’ likely top 3 or 4 pick, and Miami’s pick around 19 or 20 for the number one pick? They’d be crazy not to listen to that). Maybe to continue to stock pile other first round picks (gotta catch ‘em all?). Who knows? I just think that the Sixers are going to do everything they can to capitalize on Nerlens’ value at its highest point (which is essentially now when you can pitch him as “potential”), and if Hinkie can trade him for a better hand, he will.
Look, I hate that the Sixers suck. I want them to be good. I want them to compete. I want them to win. Unfortunately, in the NBA, the quickest way to the top is sometimes through the bottom. The Sixers have been on the bottom for two years now. I’m hoping they turn it around soon. In Hinkie We Trust. #TrustTheProcess #GoSixers #Tankapalooza.