Unlike the NFL Draft, the NBA Draft is only two rounds long, with both occurring tonight. Here's what I think happens in the First Round tonight, trades and all. This draft was supposed to be so straight forward at the top, then likely #1 overall pick Kansas C Joel Embiid broke his foot (more on that later) and now, anything can happen. I can't wait. #GoSixers. Side note, throughout the post, if I am referring to a 1 or a 4 and there's no # in front of the number, I'm referring to a position on the basketball court. 1 is Point Guard (PG), 2 is Shooting Guard (SG), 3 is Small Forward (SF), 4 is Power Forward (PF), and 5 is Center (C).
Here we go.
Considered the best PG in the draft, Exum has had his draft stock soar recently. With news of Embiid's foot injury, Exum has been in play for as high as the #1 overall pick, has a great shot of going in the top 3, and is now essentially guaranteed top-4. The smart money is on Duke SF Jabari Parker or Kansas SG Andrew WIggins to be the target of the Magic if they move to #1, but I have this feeling (maybe it's just because it would be ideal for the Sixers) the Magic could make the first shocking pick of the night (no one saw the Cavs taking PF Anthony Bennett at #1 last year. This is WAY more likely than that was). The Magic biggest need is at PG, so I think they could jump at the chance to take the versatile Exum, who would fit perfectly next to last year's #2 overall pick, Victor Oladipo (in my opinion, from what I know of Exum, which is that he's considered a more talented and higher ceiling version of Sixers PG Michael Carter-Williams, he'd fit better next to Oladipo than Wiggins would. With Oladipo and Wiggins, both of their games are incredibly similar and neither is a true PG. For all we know, neither is Exum. But he's at least listed as one). Tall for a PG (he's about 6'6"), Exum has been referred to as a combo guard. He's long and athletic (similar to MCW), can play off the ball, is a great passer, has an incredibly high basketball IQ for someone who's only 19, and would be perfect fit for Orlando. The Magic may be targeting Exum at #4, but if they're scared that the Bucks or Sixers will select him, moving up to #1 may be their only option. Wiggins and Parker (who ESPN's Chad Ford believes the Magic will take at #1) are obviously also in play for the #1 pick, as is Embiid, and, if the Magic stay at #4, Embiid, Oklahoma State PG Marcus Smart, and Indiana PF Noah Vonleh are also in play. But if the Magic do make this move to #1, there's a strong chance it's to take Exum. Another potential trade partner for Cleveland: Minnesota, especially now that LeBron James has officially opted out of his contract, making him an unrestricted free agent. If the Cavs are serious in wanting LeBron to come home, trading the pick to Minnesota for Kevin Love would be a good start. Actually, a good start would be seeing the city of Cleveland demand owner Dan Gilbert sell his team because they chose LeBron over him. That'd be hilarious. Trade talks for Kevin Love have apparently stalled due to his disinterest in re-signing with the Cavs, but one call from BronBron may change all that IF LeBron actually does what to return home to the Cavs. That's a big if. And it gives me another reason to share the most hysterical letter of all-time. Thank you so much for endless entertainment, Dan Gilbert.
Parker has been the Bucks' target since they received the second pick about a month ago. The most NBA-ready of any prospect in the draft, Parker is as complete an offensive player as they come. He can score from anywhere on the floor, can play either the 3 or the 4, and is already a great size to play in the NBA. Almost universally called the safest pick in the draft, Jabari figures to be a great pro from day 1 in the NBA who could win a couple scoring titles some day. He sometimes struggles against longer, more athletic defenders, and can be a bit of a liability at times defensively (not quite big enough to guard most 4s, not quite quick enough to guard most 3s), but Parker is as close to a sure thing as prospects get. If the Cavs stay at #1 and select Parker, the Bucks will either go with Wiggins or Exum. There are some concerns with Wiggins' ability to play next to SF Giannis Antetokounmpo, as their games may be too similar, and since the Bucks are quite high on the Greek Freak, they may opt for Exum instead. But if Parker doesn't go #1, he'll be in Milwaukee.
The Sixers are going to try to trade into the top 2. I’m convinced of it. Even if it means offering #3, #10, #32, and PF Thad Young to either Cleveland or Milwaukee. They threw away an entire season so blatantly for one reason: they LOVE Andrew Wiggins. They want him on their team, and I think they’ll do it for almost any cost. If Cleveland holds onto the first pick, I think they take Parker. Which would mean Wiggins would be at play at #2 if the Sixers can’t pry #1 away from Cleveland. The Bucks really like Exum, apparently enough that they would consider taking him over Wiggins (and apparently enough that it could cause the Magic to jump to #1 to grab Exum if saying they want Parker is a smokescreen). If the Bucks hold onto #2, they’re probably taking Wiggins if Jabari goes #1, but do they like Wiggins so much better than Exum that they wouldn’t mind taking back a veteran like Thad plus a high second round pick in a deep draft (or even another lottery pick if the Sixers get desperate enough)? I’m not so sure. If the Magic do make that trade to jump up to #1 and select Exum in a surprise move, the top three picks would fall perfectly for the Sixers. Wiggins is a perfect match for what the Sixers want to do. He's a great defender, unbelievably athletic, and has all the potential in the world to be a great player one day. They’ll do what they can to land him. And if he reaches his potential? He’s worth it. If Wiggins is off the board and the Sixers stay at #3, Exum and Embiid are the choices here. I think Embiid and C Nerlens Noel can play with each other, and the twin towers approach could provide an excellent defensive backbone for the Sixers (both are fantastic shot blockers), but the more likely pick is Exum. One scenario that is getting more and more traction is the Sixers taking Exum and looking to deal last year's Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams, for another lottery pick (most likely to the Lakers for #7, but maybe to the Kings for #8, maybe even the Magic for #4). The Sixers have said they believe Exum and MCW can play together, but from what I can tell, they seem to be exactly the same kind of player, with Exum having the higher ceiling. Sixers Head Coach Brett Brown may know more about Exum than anyone else in the NBA due to his connections with the Australian men's national basketball team, so that's always a factor. Who knows though? In Hinkie We Trust.
All that fuss and the Cavs still end up selecting Embiid. The simple fact is that Embiid, IF he’s healthy, is the best prospect in this draft. Embiid has the size, skill, and athleticism for a Center that could make him among the game’s best big men in no time. The only issue is the fact that he’s had a hard time staying healthy, which is a pretty gigantic issue. A stress fracture in his lower back caused him to miss the end of the season at Kansas, and the draft went into chaos when a small fracture in his foot was revealed. Exum is in play here if Embiid still goes in the top three (because I think the Cavs are finally fed up with SG Dion Waiters and have clearly chosen PG Kyrie Irving over him, so don’t rule out Waiters being dealt for a high pick. Sacramento maybe?), as well as Indiana PF Noah Vonleh and Kentucky PF Julius Randle (slight edge to Randle because the Cavs are in win-now, get LeBron here mode and Randle is more NBA-ready) but I think Embiid is the pick at #4 if the Cavs are here. His potential is just too great to pass up, and there's a big difference taking the risk on him at #4 rather than #1. The break in his foot is apparently a four-to-six month recovery, and, especially for a big man, not in an ideal spot. But if he can recover, grabbing Embiid at #4, along with another lottery pick and a player such as Afflalo (a great piece for a team that would be trying to attract LeBron James), would be a great haul for Cleveland. If Embiid does end up sliding, I doubt he gets by the Celtics at #6. There's also a chance that the Cavs try to flip #4 and #12 to land an additional impact player. A likely package that the Cavs could try would be #4, #12, a first round pick next year, and a player like Anthony Bennett to Minnesota for Kevin Love.
The Jazz are also going to try to trade into top 2 to draft Jabari Parker. Maybe with Embiid’s injury, if the Cavs really do still like him (as I think they do), just not at #1, they make a deal with Utah. I just don’t know what the Jazz can offer Cleveland to trump Philly or Orlando's potential package. #5 and Derrick Favors would be a good start (maybe even throw in #23 as well. Possibly throw in PG Trey Burke or SG Alec Burks and aim for a PG at #23 if they can keep that pick? That's a lot though, and I don't know if they'd be willing to trade that much), but they’ll need to offer a lot to best either Orlando's package or a Philly Godfather offer of #3, #10, #32, and Thad. If the Jazz can't trade up, Vonleh is the pick here. Embiid will get a look if he's on the board, but Vonleh fits a big need for the Jazz. A fantastic rebounder who can shoot with range and protect the rim, Vonleh is a great prospect. Still a little raw and still prone to some lapses during the game, Vonleh will need some work, but can develop into a bigger version of PF Chris Bosh. The potential is there for Vonleh to be an impact player. If Vonleh is off the board, Randle and Arizona PF Aaron Gordon will both be considered as well.
TRADES! Before I start, if Embiid slides to #6, I don't think the Celtics offer this trade back to Minnesota, and the Celtics happily take Embiid. But if this deal does occur, it would obviously be the biggest deal of the night and the biggest thing to happen in the NBA until LeBron makes his Decision 2.0. I still think Kevin Love gets moved before the season starts, and the draft is always a night for big moves. Golden State needs to figure something out before the draft if they want to land Kevin Love because it will be much tougher to compete with an draft night offer from Boston, Cleveland, or even the Lakers. The biggest potential issue with this trade is it's A LOT to give up for a guy who may not even stay past his one-year rental. If the Celtics were to trade for him, but then couldn't get him to sign a long term deal? This would be a potential train wreck deal. But Boston, like the Lakers, always find a way to stay relevant and can't be a lottery team for too long. As much potential as a rebuiild could hold (these two first round picks this year, two first round picks next year, a young core to build around PG Rajon Rondo if they can convince him to stay), the Celtics want banner #18 as soon as possible. Kevin Love makes them more relevant quicker and would be a great match with Rondo. Personally, I'm rooting for the Golden State trade. Other than the fact that I'm a Sixers fan so I don't want to see Kevin Love in the division, Steph Curry and Kevin Love together would be a wonderful match. They were made to play together. But for some reason, that deal hasn't happened yet, and I don't know if the TWolves can roll the dice with waiting past this particular draft night. With the Celtics trade, the TWolves would have #6, #13, and #17 in a loaded draft along with now three first round picks next year. And with pick #6? Kentucky's double-double machine Julius Randle would be the best fit in Minnesota given who's available. Randle was fantastic as a freshman, and, other than Jabari Parker, may be the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft. He's quick off the dribble, excellent in the post, a good passer, runs the floor well, and will be able to make a great impact as a pro. Some worry about his size (a little small to be a true PF) and a recent foot injury (which had him sliding all the way to the Sixers at #10 in some mocks. I'd be more than okay with that), but if he can continue to develop his jump shot to about 15 to 18 feet and plays with the intensity he brought to the national runner-ups, those concerns will go away. Gordon is a possibility here as well, but Randle is simply a better and safer option than Gordon.
I love Marcus Smart. He's part of the reason my bracket went up in flames. He's a combo guard who may be the best perimeter defender in the draft (it's closer between him and Wiggins than people realize), can score well (especially if he continues to improve his 3PT shot), and is a natural leader on the floor. Throw him on the Lakers to learn under Steve Nash, and Smart could be a star in this league. Because they're the Lakers, and they don't want to wait around for a player to develop, there's a strong possibility of a trade to bring in players to help Kobe Bryant win his sixth ring in the two years Kobe has left on his contract. Trade possibilities for the Lakers include trying to land Kevin Love (they'd need to offer more than just #7, but they don't have much more to offer), trading to Milwaukee for PG Brandon Knight, or trading to Philadelphia for PG Michael Carter-Williams (especially if the Bucks or Sixers take Exum at #2 or #3 respectively). One deal that is a real possibility with the Sixers if the Sixers don't trade up to #1 and select Exum at #3 is MCW and Thad to the Lakers for #7 and Steve Nash's expiring contract. This would clear the cap space necessary, as well as give the Lakers the complimentary pieces, to make a run at LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony. Nothing would make the Lakers more relevant sooner than pairing LeBron and Kobe together. Do not rule this out.
I really think Sacramento trades this pick. It's just a matter of to who. There are tons of rumors going around of the Kings trying trade the pick to Detroit for PF Josh Smith, but that deal would have a lot of complicated moving parts due to the nature of Smith's massive contract. Milwaukee has been trying to gain another lottery pick since the start by dangling out Knight, PF Jon Henson, and even C Larry Sanders (one of the leagues most talented, but potentially most self-destructive big men). They would almost definitely make this trade if Smart was still available, but still may make the trade to grab Payton. I could also see the Sixers trading back into this spot to jump in front of Charlotte and select the shooter of their choice (#8 for MCW? You really couldn’t see that happening? ESPECIALLY if the Sixers stay at #3 and draft Exum?). If the Kings do hold onto the pick though, PG will be the likely direction, and with Smart gone, look for the Kings to take Payton anyway. But Knight fills that need for them, and is a better fit for Sacramento given the status of SF Rudy Gay and C DeMarcus Cousins if they can't make the deal for Josh Smith happen. A deal for Josh Smith may also cause Boston's Rajon Rondo to re-evaluate Sacramento. The Kings could possibly deal the pick to Cleveland for Waiters, and the Kings would probably prefer that deal to what Milwaukee could offer, but I don't know if the Cavs would actually pull the trigger on that deal. Payton has been shooting up everyone's draft boards in pre-draft workouts. He's lightning quick, plays tough defense, and can get to the rim. He’d be a great fit in Milwaukee's backcourt and could play quite well with the Bucks other new addition: Jabari Parker.
The Hornets need someone who can shoot. McBuckets may be the best shooter in the draft. This pick makes too much sense. It's either Dougie Fresh or Michigan SG Nik Stauskas, the other guy who can rival McDermott as the best shooter in the draft. But since McDermott is the greatest shooter in human history who only hits the rim sometimes to make it fair to everyone else, he should be the pick here at #9. There are some concerns with McDermott's ability to translate his game to the NBA, citing that he may not be athletic enough to play the 3 in the NBA (which he dismissed to a certain extent with his pre-draft workouts), but he's probably the smartest player in the draft who can come in and play immediately. He can score in a variety of ways, both from the post and from the outside. If he was two inches taller, he'd be a likely top-5 pick.
The Arizona standout could go as high as #5 to Utah, but I don't think he drops any lower than #10 to the Sixers. Gordon, along with Wiggins and UCLA PG Zach LaVine, is among the best athletes in the draft. He can run the floor as well as anyone, jump out of the building, and play WAY above the rim. He's a good enough midrange shooter (which would lead me to believe he can be a much better free throw shooter. Come on now. 42%! I can shoot better than 42%! No where to go but up. Hopefully) who's trying to extend his range beyond the 3PT line. The issues with Gordon are that he's not going to be a phenomenal scorer in the NBA and he's a bit of a tweener (he may not be big enough to be a true 4, but he probably isn't a 3 either because he doesn't have the shot that most would want out of a 3). Still, he does all the other things needed for a good team. He can guard both any position 1-4, rebounds well, sets good screens, and plays at an incredibly high intensity. Plus, he's a highlight reel waiting to happen. He's a fun player to watch. If he's on your team, you're going to enjoy watching him. I think Gordon and Wiggins would be a great combo for the Sixers on draft night. THAT would be a fun team to watch. MCW, Wiggins, Gordon, and Nerlens Noel? They may not win many games this next year, but that core has all the potential in the world to turn into a great team in the Eastern Conference. McDermott or Stauskas, whoever Charlotte doesn't take, are also options since the Sixers could really use some outside shooting (they could really use a lot), as is Kentucky SF James Young or LaVine, but Gordon is a potential top-5 talent. I'm very excited for my fake Sixers team, and you should be too. And that's before they sign both LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony in free agency, win at least 68 games in the regular season and the NBA Championship, and bring basketball glory back to Philadelphia. Let's just move on before anyone questions the validity of my pipe dream.
The only guy who can come close to McBuckets in terms of pure outside shooting (and may actually even be a little better. Gulp), Stauskas fills the biggest need in the draft for Chicago. There's no way the Bulls are getting this kind of shooter at #16 or #19 (plus, only taking one first round pick into free agency frees up that much more cap space for the Bulls to make a run at Carmelo Anthony). Remember that skinny guy who just kept jacking 3s in the NCAA tournament a couple years ago and they all kept going in? Yea, that was Nik Stauskas. The B1G Player of the Year is a tremendous shooter who will be able to help the Bulls immediately. A better defender than given credit for, Stauskas is a perfect match for Chicago.
Among the best players in college basketball last year, Payne is well deserving of the #12 overall selection, especially to a team like Cleveland who wants a player who is ready to play from day one. This may be a little high from him, but Payne is one of the most complete players in the draft. One of the biggest reasons many scouts believe Payne doesn't go this high is because of his age. He's a four-year senior. Seeing a four-year senior drafted in the lottery is almost like seeing a unicorn. A monster on the boards who can shoot well enough from 3PT range to be a threat, Payne is ready and able to come in and make an impact immediately. He's a great all-around player with no major holes in his game who can do just about anything you want a PF to do. He'd be a great fit for Cleveland, especially if they end up trading PF Tristan Thompson for a veteran player.
Back-to-back Spartans. Harris can play either the 1 or the 2, shoot with great range and get to the rim, and is a very good defender. He's a very safe pick who can make an immediate impact for a TWolves team that finds themselves in the post-Kevin Love era. If the TWolves trade for Klay Thompson, Harris may not be the pick here (he still may be because of his ability to play the 1 and the fact that Minnesota may finally be getting tired of the Ricky Rubio experiment), but he's as complete a prospect as you can find in this range. If the TWolves look elsewhere, it may be at a true PG to replace Rubio (someone like Payton, Connecticut PG Shabazz Napier, or Syracuse PG Tyler Ennis), or they could go with Young or Duke SG/SF Rodney Hood. Croatian PF Dario Saric is also an option, but the Rubio draft-and-stash was such a circus, I don't know if Minnesota would want to ever go through that again.
In terms of pure athleticism and potential, LaVine is a top-5 pick. Easy. He's a freak athlete who can play either the 1 or the 2 and is a phenomenal shooter. Apparently, the Suns are also quietly shopping PG Goran Dragic, and PG Eric Bledsoe is a restricted free agent, so the choice of LaVine could give the Suns some much needed flexibility. Even if the Suns do keep both Dragic and Bledsoe, LaVine is a great pick at #14 on upside alone. Phoenix may be looking for a wing player, so Hood, Young, or North Carolina State SF T.J. Warren are all options as well.
Hood, the sweet shooting swingman from Duke, is either a massive 2 or a small 3 (not that it really matters anymore. In today's NBA, depending on how your team plays, the 2 and the 3 could be interchangeable). He's got a great shot from anywhere on the court and can get to the basket. Hood would bring some much needed athleticism and even more outside shooting to a Hawks team that took the Indiana Pacers to the limit in Round One of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. He's a decent defender who has the athleticism to be even better if he continues to develop. Bosnian C Jusuf Nurkic is an option here, as well as Saric. Other options include the PG trio of LaVine, Napier, and Ennis, or another wing like Warren, but Hood would fit nicely with the Hawks and provide an immediate boost to a team that came within one game of causing one of the most monumental collapses in NBA history. So close.
The Bosnian big man has a great chance of being the second international player off the board, depending on how many teams are scared away from Saric's two extra years in Europe. He's massive, even for a center (6'11", but a whopping 280 pounds), and has a great touch around the basket. He has the potential to be a defensive force as well, but needs a lot more work on that side of the ball. He's ready to go from an offensive perspective, and can give the Nuggets a great scoring threat from the block. The PG trio is also an option for Denver, given they may be trying to move PG Ty Lawson, as well as Warren to give Denver a much needed perimeter scoring threat, but the overall talent of Nurkic could be too much to pass up for a Western Conference team in need of a big man on the block.
Warren is an absolute offensive monster. In terms of simply the ability to score the basketball, Warren ranks only behind Jabari Parker in this draft (potentially Dougie McBuckets Fresh as well, but it's close). The ACC Player of the Year isn't an exceptional athlete and is not great on the defensive side of the ball either, but with Kevin Love now gone, the TWolves need a number one scoring option. T.J. Warren is that guy. Saric may be more appealing here at #17 than at #13 if he continues to slide, as well as Napier or Ennis, but Warren's pure offensive potential may be too much for the TWolves to pass on.
The Kentucky swingman is the perfect fit for Phoenix at #18. Phoenix needs help on the wing, and Young might have the highest ceiling of any wing available. His stock has taken a hit recently due to a minor car accident that didn't allow him to participate in his final few workouts, so the Suns may elect to take a somewhat safer wing. Hood is also an option if he slides a bit (a little less athletic, a little better shooter), as is Warren, but Young offers so much potential, he's hard to pass for a Phoenix team on the rise. One of the youngest players in the draft, it may be a few years until he develops into a high-quality NBA player, but he can do just that as the second of Phoenix's three first round picks. Phoenix may be trying to trade this pick (or #27. Or Both), but if Young is still on the board at #18, he'd fit nicely in Phoenix.
And you thought I would be finished talking about the Sixers! Never! Saric is one of the bigger mysteries in the draft after his decision to stay in Europe for at least two more seasons, but on talent alone, he's a top-10 player in this draft, which is saying something. Plant Saric in the high post, and you can run your entire offense through him. He has a soft touch around the rim, can shoot well from midrange and beyond the arc, and is a fantastic passer. It's just a matter of which team will take the gamble on him and wait a few years. If Saric slides this far, the Sixers will be one of the first teams on the phone trying to trade back into the first round to grab him. Before Saric's decision to stay in Europe, many believed the Sixers would take him at #10. I think the Sixers trade Thad on draft night, whether it's to Cleveland for #1, the Lakers for #7, or another pick in the first round. Thad would fit in well with the Nuggets, especially if the Nuggets do end up trading PF Kenneth Faried. Even with Faried and SF Danilo Gallinari, since Thad can play both the 3 and the 4, he will be able to provide valuable minutes for a Denver team that is one year removed from making the playoffs. Also, if the Sixers draft goes like this, I'll probably start doing backflips. "Ideal" is an understatement. And again, this is before LeBron and Carmelo sign with the Sixers. Sorry, I said I'd move on before anyone questioned the validity of my pipe dream. Next pick.
No player did more in the NCAA tournament or in pre-draft workouts to improve his draft stock than Napier. Projected to be a mid to late second round pick, Napier is now getting some consideration towards the back end of the lottery. After an incredible senior season, capped off by an improbable run to the national championship, Napier is as ready as any prospect in the draft to take on the NBA. An explosive scorer who may be the quickest player in the draft, Napier is a great distributor and shooter as well. The biggest knock against him is his size (he's about 6'1". Maybe), but there's no questioning his talent or his heart. The Raptors will most likely be choosing a PG here, as there is little chance free agent to be PG Kyle Lowry re-signs north of the border. Ennis is a popular pick here as well, especially given the fact that he's Canadian, but Napier has apparently blown Ennis away in pre-draft workouts.
One of the more interesting prospects in the draft, Anderson may have seen his stock rise by doing nothing but watching the NBA Finals. Many scouts are comparing Anderson to San Antonio Spurs PF Boris Diaw, saying that his play-making ability at his size hasn't been seen since Diaw entered the league. After Diaw's remarkable playoff run, one that very nearly named him Finals MVP, in a copycat league, the Thunder may be looking for their own version. Anderson is a great fit with the Thunder before you throw in the Diaw factor. He's a bit of a tweener, so he either play next to PF/C Serge Ibaka at the 4, or provide some much needed minutes relief to reigning NBA MVP Kevin Durant. Either way, Anderson can be a true facilitator in OKC's offense. PG Russell Westbrook is dynamic, but he's still growing as someone who can make plays for his teammates. Anderson is already that kind of player. He's a very smart player and great passer, especially out of the high post, which can be deadly when flanked by Westbrook and Durant. The Thunder may also be looking for some more depth on the wing (Warren if available, Wichita State SF Cleanthony Early, or Clemson SF K.J. McDaniels) or even some depth as guard (Ennis is a long shot, but maybe UNC SG P.J. Hairston), but Anderson just seems like the perfect fit for OKC here. They can take another wing or guard at #29 if they don't trade that pick, or trade #29 for that wing / guard.
Warren is the ideal fit here since a 3 who can score is clearly Memphis’ biggest need (you mean you don't think SF Tayshaun Prince will average 25 PPG next season? Or any season?), so if he’s here, expect him in Memphis. But with him off the board already, Stokes is next in line. Big, physical, and a great rebounder, Stokes is a perfect fit for the Grizzlies’ physical style of play. He can also provide some rest for both PF Zach Randolph and C Marc Gasol as the two bigs on the Grizz get a little older. Also, with Randolph considering entering free agency, Stokes could be a viable replacement and provide the Grizz with some flexibility. Early has been getting some buzz here as well due to the fact that Memphis needs a 3 badly, but the Grizz will most likely take the local product if Warren's gone and Stokes is available.
The slide of Tyler Ennis finally stops. At #23, Ennis is an absolute steal. I feel like he should go before this, but I just couldn't find a spot. Ennis would be a great fit with Utah. Despite drafting PG Trey Burke last year, Ennis and Burke can coexist together in the backcourt along with SG Alec Burks. Plus, there's a real chance that Utah tries to trade Burke or Burks in a package to move up to select Jabari Parker. So Ennis is a very nice fit if Utah still has this pick. Not the most athletic PG in the draft, nor the most reliable jumper, Ennis is a very solid passer with a high basketball IQ. He can get his teammates involved and set up high quality shots.
Hairston is another quite interesting prospect, but for all the wrong reasons. Talent wise, he's among the best in the draft and ready to go from day one. He's a fantastic outside shooter and can get to and finish around the basket as well as anyone in the draft. He'd easily be a lottery pick. He'll be a huge upgrade for Charlotte at the 2 immediately. However, the biggest reason Hairston is still on the board at #24 is his off-the-court issues. Hairston lost his eligibility to play for UNC prior to his junior year for accepting illegal benefits. He then spent one very successful year in the NBA D-League. Hairston has the offensive talent to end up being one of the best players in this draft. I don't think MJ lets a fellow Tar Heel drop any further. He'll pull the trigger on what may end up being the best value pick of the entire draft (the same guy who picked Kwame Brown #1 overall could end up winning the deepest draft in years. Charlotte's biggest need was clearly outside shooting. That would be addressed and then some with the additions of McDermott and Hairston. MJ's just adding to the legacy).
Houston is trying really hard to trade PG Jeremy Lin (pretty much telling any team interested in C Omer Asik that they would need to take on Lin's toxic contract as well) to clear the necessary cap space to make a run at either Melo or LeBron, so a PG replacement would be a good pick for the Rockets. Clarkson is the best one on the board. To play on Houston, he'll need to improve his 3PT shot, but he's a huge improvement defensively (because have you seen this James Harden video? Defensive Juggernaut). Clarkson can play both the 1 and the 2, ideal for a team that has both Harden and PG Patrick Beverly. He's long and athletic, and would fit nicely in the Houston backcourt.
Miami needs a rim protector. Bad. That much was evident during these past NBA Playoffs. Capela may not be the most NBA-ready, which may not be exactly what Miami is looking for as they try to woo back LeBron James and try for a fifth straight trip to the NBA Finals, but the potential of what Capela could be may be too tempting to pass up. He's long, athletic, runs the floor incredibly well for his position, and can provide Miami with someone not named Birdman to protect the rim. If he can develop quickly, he'd turn into a perfect match for the Heat alongside their aging Big 3 (provided the three of them return). Michigan PF Mitch McGary is also an option at this point. Miami will also try to trade up to draft Napier, but it will be difficult to trade up because they simply don't have the assets. #26 and PG Norris Cole would be essentially the only offer they can make, and that may not be enough to move up into the teens to grab Napier in front of Toronto.
McGary was the high energy big man who played incredibly well during Michigan's run to the national championship game two years ago. After an injury plagued sophomore season, McGary decided to jump to the NBA anyway. He's big and physical, plays with tremendous energy, and can be a force in the paint. If he didn't have the injury concerns, he'd be going much higher. Phoenix, with their third first round pick, can take a flier on McGary and wait for him to get healthy, especially given the fact that Phoenix's medical team is world class. There's also a high chance Phoenix trades this pick. The New York Knicks desperately want to move back into the first round, so they're an option (SG Iman Shumpert is the Knicks only real asset they can move for a first round pick, but I don't know how he fits with Phoenix), but if they somehow hold onto all three, McGary would be a solid choice here. Spanish C Walter Tavares and Russian C Artem Klimenko are both options as draft-and-stash candidates so Phoenix wouldn't be bringing in three rookies.
Early is another player who helped his draft stock during the NCAA tournament. Early scored a game high 31 points and was clearly the best player on the floor in what may have been the best game of the entire tournament: Wichita State vs. Kentucky. Early was incredible during the game and became one of the stars of the tournament, despite Wichita State's early exit. Early is a very solid defender and can shoot the 3PT shot consistently. He'd be a great upgrade for the Clippers on the wing. McDaniels, as well as Michigan SF Glenn Robinson III, are both options here as well, but I like the Clippers to take the most NBA-ready of the three, which is Early.
Patric Young is a superior version of Thunder C Kendrick Perkins in my opinion. He is a tough, physical player who does all the little things needed for a championship caliber team. He rebounds well, defends well, blocks shots, sets good screens, and can score when needed. He's not the greatest scorer in the draft, but a player like Young has the ability to come in and help a team immediately. After seeing Perkins age even quicker this season and what the defense looked like without Ibaka in the San Antonio series, the Thunder should be thinking of a replacement to Perkins and another big alongside Ibaka. Imagine a lineup of Westbrook, Durant, #21 overall pick Kyle Anderson, Young, and Ibaka. Scary thought for the league. Almost as scary as Young looks in that picture. He's HUGE (half the reason Young gets selected here is because I actually do think he'd be a great fit for OKC. The other half is I wanted to include that picture). The Thunder could also be looking to add another guard to the mix to provide some support to Westbrook and PG Reggie Jackson, so UCLA SG Jordan Adams will be in the mix here, as well as McDaniels to provide some minutes relief to Durant. But Young just seems like a great fit in Oklahoma City. Trading the pick to New York for Iman Shumpert is also a possibility, and has been since the February 20 trade deadline. There's still a chance that deal happens on draft night, but it seems more and more unlikely.
The San Antonio Spurs didn't show many conceivable holes in their dominating championship run this past season. And with Tim Duncan deciding to return for another year, the Spurs will be in a position to win another championship. The Spurs have an incredible track record during the later parts of the draft, especially with international players. They haven't selected in the lottery since the Duncan pick in 1997, but have won five NBA championships, tied with the Lakers for the most in that time period. If the Spurs want a player who can come in and help immediately, Adams may be the pick here. Given that the future of SG Manu Ginobili is still in doubt (since Duncan isn't retiring, I doubt Ginobili is, but he still may), Adams can step right into the Ginobili role as a spark who can score off the bench. But the Spurs are always a threat to take a draft-and-stash guy. And Tavares is an ideal draft-and-stash guy, meaning he’s the ideal candidate to be drafted by the Spurs. He’s HUGE (7’3”, 265 lbs), and can be a great defensive center in the league, but is probably a few years away. Tavares’ draft stock has been on the rise lately, and he just seems like exactly the kind of player the Spurs would select. He can develop for a couple more seasons overseas, and then come in and start the post-Duncan era in San Antonio. Capela is also an option if he drops this far.
1. Stay at #3 and draft Exum. Trade MCW and Thad to LAL for #7 and Nash (Nash will then be bought out and retire because he's not playing for the Sixers) to draft Embiid / Randle / Vonleh / Gordon (whoever is there). Do one of two things with #10. Either select McDermott / Stauskas at #10 or trade #10 to Chicago for #16 and #19. Target LaVine, Hood, or J. Young at #16 and LaVine again at #19 if he can fall there or Kyle Anderson / Saric. The more I read, the more I think this is the most likely scenario.
2. Trade #3, #10, #32, and Thad to Cleveland for #1. Draft Wiggins at #1. Hope he's as good as advertised. Don't be surprised if the Sixers still try to flip MCW for a lottery pick even if they don't draft Exum. Look, I loved watching MCW play this past year, but the simple fact is, he was the best rookie in the weakest class of rookies in quite some time. His scoring numbers were inflated because someone had to score, his shooting percentages weren't great, and he struggled with turnovers at time. Granted, so do most rookies, but MCW's potential trade value will never be higher than it currently is. Dealing him for a lottery pick may be too tempting for Hinkie to pass on, especially if he believes he can draft a player better than MCW.
3. Stay at #3 and draft Embiid. I really think he can work along side Nerlens. Plus, big men with injury problems are a must for Philly now. Portland East! Either draft McDermott / Stauskas at #10 or trade #10 to Chicago for #16 and #19. With Embiid and Nerlens though, they'd have to be targeting players like LaVine, Hood, J. Young, Hairston, or Warren with those two picks. You need some outside shooting around the two big men. Or they can take Nurkic and go for the biggest lineup in the NBA history. Embiid can play the 3, right? Pound the post!
4. This one will never happen. But just, it's my blog, okay? Trade MCW and Thad to LAL for #7 and Steve Nash. Trade #3, #7, #10, and Nerlens to Minnesota for Kevin Love. Sign LeBron and Melo. Use the MLE to sign Ray Allen and another shooter. Pray to God Nash and Allen don't play like they're turning 41 and 39, respectively, next year. Fill out the bench with ring chasing vets and other players you can sign for the league minimum. Go 82-0 in the regular season and 16-0 in the playoffs. Win the NBA Championship.
5. As far as the second round, I doubt they hold onto all five of those picks. They'll probably use a few of them to package in some sort of trade to obtain either another lottery pick, move up in the lottery, or just to move back into the first round. At #32, I'd love for the Sixers to target a player like Early, Robinson III, or McDaniels. Possibly also a draft-and-stash candidate like Tavares or Klimenko. French SF Damien Inglis is another player I would like to see the Sixers target with either #32 or #39, as well as Patric Young and Colorado PG Spencer Dinwiddie. Chad Ford has the Sixers selecting UNLV PF Khem Birch at #47, and I'd be very okay with that. SF Thanasis Antetokounmpo, a member of the Sixers' D-League team, is another player who will be considered at #47, #52, and #54, as will Syracuse SF C.J. Fair, Buffalo PF JaVon McCrea, Stanford PF Dwight Powell, and Louisville PG Russ Smith (many liken him to Sixers legend Allen Iverson. Why not?).
6. As I said earlier, I have no idea what Sam Hinkie's going to do, nor does anyone else, but I'm prepared to love it. In Hinkie We Trust. #GoSixers
The NBA Draft is tonight at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN.