- The Seattle Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champions, defeating the Denver Broncos 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII with one of the most dominating defensive performances in the history of the league against one of the greatest quarterbacks (Peyton Manning) in the history of the league.
- No Super Bowl champion has won a playoff game the following year since the New England Patriots did it in 2005-06. The Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVIII, then won Super Bowl XXXIX (in my opinion, top five most depressing games ever played). The next year, the Patriots won their first round game before losing to the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round. Since then, the Super Bowl champions have been, in order, the Pittsburgh Steelers (missed playoffs the next year), the Indianapolis Colts (0-1 in playoffs the next year), the New York Giants (0-1 in playoffs the next year), the Pittsburgh Steelers again (missed playoffs the next year), the New Orleans Saints (0-1 in playoffs the next year), the Green Bay Packers (0-1 in playoffs the next year), the New York Giants again (missed playoffs the next year), the Baltimore Ravens (missed playoffs the next year), and the Seattle Seahawks (???).
- The Seahawks are the #1 seed in the NFC and have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs for the third time in team history. The previous two times (2005-06 and 2013-14), the Seahawks made the Super Bowl.
- Now that all the dust has settled and all teams have played all 16 games, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has my fictitious MVP vote. I want my fake vote to go towards Houston Texans DE J.J. Watt. I really do. He was phenomenal this season. He did it all and brought his team on the cusp of a playoff berth without a quarterback. But those two things work against Watt in major ways. It’s very hard to prove you’re the most valuable player in the league when your team doesn’t make the playoffs, no matter how good your stats are (also, ten of Watt’s 20.5 sacks came in the four games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans, teams that went a combined 5-27. Sacks are sacks, but…). Also, since the answer to the question posed by Tom Pelissero of the USA Today of “Would Aaron Rodgers be considered for the award if the Packers missed the playoffs at 9-7 because they didn’t have a defensive lineman?” is a resounding no, Rodgers gets my vote if I had one. I get that if Watt doesn’t win it this year, a non-quarterback may as well not even try to win it, but quarterback is the most important position on the field, and Rodgers had a ten game stretch where he played the position as well as anyone in league history. From week four through week 14, Rodgers threw the ball 314 times, completed 212 of them (67.52%) for 2,955 yards (295.5 per game, and this included multiple games where he was pulled from the game in the fourth quarter because the game was already well in hand for the Packers), 30 touchdowns and TWO interceptions, good for an absurd quarterback rating of 126.8, all while his team went 9-1. The MVP vote was settled after week 10 when Rodgers eviscerated the Chicago Bears for six touchdown passes on Sunday Night Football in the first half. That half of football was the quarterback position at the highest level. Everything else Rodgers did just confirmed his MVP candidacy. The rest of my MVP top five after Rodgers: Watt, New England Patriots QB Tom Brady, Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo, and Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, in that order. Honorable mentions to Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski, and Dallas Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray.
- Other awards – Offensive Player of the Year: Rodgers, Defensive Player of the Year: Watt, Offensive Rookie of the Year: New York Giants WR Odell Beckham, Jr. (in a landslide, which is saying something because this rookie class was incredibly impressive), Defensive Rookie of the Year: Baltimore Ravens ILB C.J. Mosley, Coach of the Year: Arizona Cardinals Head Coach Bruce Arians (winning eleven games and making the playoffs with all the injuries and the revolving door at quarterback beats out Texans Head Coach Bill O’Brien winning nine games with no quarterback and missing the playoffs).
- No, I don’t think Detroit Lions DT Ndamukong Suh should’ve been suspended, and yes, I think the NFL is doing the right thing by overturning the suspension while simply fining him, and no, that’s not just because they’re playing the Dallas Cowboys in the first round. I think what Suh did was stupid and avoidable (the argument that convinced me of that: have you ever stepped on something behind you? Suh didn’t react like he did), but proving any malicious intent was 100% speculative (although, your feet were cold so you didn’t know what you were stepping on? That’s a stretch, even on The Frozen Tundra).
- Speaking of the Lions, starting QB Matthew Stafford is 0-17 (including postseason) in his career on the road against teams with a winning record. Detroit starts the playoffs at 12-4 Dallas.
- Speaking of the Cowboys, Dallas went 8-0 on the road this season. Four of the last five teams to do that went on to play in the Super Bowl.
- Carolina Panthers QB sCam Newton and Gronk are two of my three favorite players in the NFL (the other: Philadelphia Eagles RB LeSean McCoy), so I’m rooting for a Panthers-Patriots Super Bowl.
- Speaking of the Panthers, they are the fourth team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a record below .500 (they won the NFC South at 7-8-1. Lol ties). Only one such team, the 2010 Seattle Seahawks, who won the NFC West at 7-9, actually won a playoff game. They beat the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints.
- My preseason Super Bowl pick was the San Francisco 49ers. I bet on the maturation and progression of QB Colin Kaepernick, a quarterback that led his team to two straight NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl appearance. He did the opposite (zero fourth quarter passing touchdowns on an 8-8 team is near impossible, but Kap found a way). The defense, even through a myriad of injuries, was still good enough for the Niners to at least make the playoffs, but they let too many close games slip away (the Chicago Bears in week two, the Arizona Cardinals in week 3, the St. Louis Rams in week 9, the Oakland Raiders in week 14, and the San Diego Chargers in week 16. All games the 49ers had a chance to win and / or should have won. All losses).
- 97% of teams since 1990 that started the season 9-3 made the playoffs. Ninety. Seven. Percent. My favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles, is part of the 3% that did not.
- No team has ever played in a Super Bowl played in their home stadium. The Arizona Cardinals are looking to become the first.
- Speaking of the Cardinals, they are the only team of this year’s twelve to be led by a quarterback with zero playoff experience since QB Carson Palmer is out for the year. Both QB Drew Stanton and QB Ryan Lindley have never started a playoff game.
- On the flip side of that, there are six teams in this year’s playoffs that are being led by Super Bowl winning quarterbacks: New England (Tom Brady, x3), Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger, x2), Denver (Peyton Manning), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers), Seattle (Russell Wilson), and Baltimore (Joe Flacco). I’m 99% sure that’s never happened before. Someone fact check me.
- The career records of the starting quarterbacks for each team in the playoffs: Tom Brady is 18-8. Peyton Manning is 11-12. Ben Roethlisberger is 10-4. Joe Flacco is 9-4. Aaron Rodgers is 5-4. Russell Wilson is 4-1. Andrew Luck is 1-2. Tony Romo is 1-4. sCam Newton and Matthew Stafford are 0-1. Andy Dalton is 0-3. Both Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley are 0-0.
- The NFC seeds, one through six, are Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Carolina, Arizona, and Detroit.
- The AFC seeds, one through six, are New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Baltimore.
- The top two seeds in each conference get a bye for Wild Card Weekend, while the third seed hosts the sixth seed and the fourth seed hosts the fifth seed.
- The NFL reseeds after each round, meaning that the #2 seed will host the top remaining seed to survive wild card weekend, while the #1 seed hosts the bottom remaining seed. This means that where the 4-5 winner plays in contingent upon who wins the 3-6 matchup. If the #3 seed wins, they automatically play the #2 seed and the 4-5 winner will play the #1 seed. If the #6 seed wins, they automatically play the #1 seed and the 4-5 winner will play the #2 seed. The top remaining seed to win in the Divisional Round will host the conference championship game. The Super Bowl is played on a neutral field. This year, in Arizona.
Magic of sCam. In all seriousness, I actually do think the Panthers win this football game. The #2 ranked defense from 2013 has been playing very well down the stretch, and SuperCam looks to be back at his 2013 level of play these last couple weeks. He’s moving much better than in early weeks, and that should be a big factor in this game. The Cards have had some trouble with mobile quarterbacks (see Wilson, Russell), and if Newton is on his game, he should be able to lead the Panthers past the Cards. The fact that the Cards offense has been stuck in neutral since Drew Stanton got hurt definitely helps Carolina. If Stanton can play, Arizona will have a much better chance, but if the Cards have to start Ryan Lindley, Carolina should be able to advance.
FINAL SCORE: Carolina 24, Arizona 13
A6 Baltimore Ravens at A3 Pittsburgh Steelers
The injury to star RB Le’Veon Bell for the Steelers could be huge, but they may not need him as much against the Ravens’ 23rd ranked pass defense. Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown should be able to both have big games and lead the Steelers past the Ravens in round three of this heated rivalry.
FINAL SCORE: Pittsburgh 28, Baltimore 21
A5 Cincinnati Bengals at A4 Indianapolis Colts
The Bengals visited Indianapolis week seven and were blown out of the building, 27-0 (the game wasn’t even that close). This time around, however, I like Cincinnati to pull out the upset. The Colts are one of the most inconsistent teams in football, and I just don’t trust them. Yes, I understand that this involves me picking Andy Dalton to beat Andrew Luck in a playoff game, but the emergence of rookie RB Jeremy Hill and the resurgence (well, to some extent) of the Bengals defense, to go along with the fact that Indianapolis has not played well down the stretch, has me picking the Bengals in a close one.
FINAL SCORE: Cincinnati 27, Indianapolis 24
N6 Detroit Lions at N3 Dallas Cowboys
I don’t want to talk about it. Dallas is really good.
FINAL SCORE: Dallas 38, Detroit 27
On to Cincinnati. The game that turned around the Patriots season. After losing embarrassingly to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football 41-14 in week 4, the Patriots came back the next week on Sunday Night Football and destroyed the Bengals 43-17, the first of seven straight wins. I can’t see this game result being any different. Do you want to live in a world where Andy Dalton beats Tom Brady in a playoff game? No, you don't because that's a sure sign of the apocalypse, and we don't want that happening just yet.
FINAL SCORE: New England 34, Cincinnati 10
N4 Carolina Panthers at N1 Seattle Seahawks
The Panthers and Seahawks have played each other to some UGLY football games the last three seasons. Seattle has won all three by scores of 13-9, 12-7, and 16-12. As much as I want the Magic of sCam to continue all the way to the Super Bowl, Seattle is playing on a complete different level than every other team in the NFC right now. Over the final six games of the regular season, the Seahawks allowed a total of 39 points (6.5 per game). Needless to say, the Seahawks were 6-0 over that stretch. Carolina’s defense should be able to keep this one close, but Seattle’s defense should be able to keep the Panthers’ inconsistent offense off the board for much of the game. The Seahawks should finally be able to break the streak of Super Bowl champions not being able to win a playoff game the year after their Super Bowl win.
FINAL SCORE: Seattle 19, Carolina 6
N3 Dallas Cowboys at N2 Green Bay Packers
The uncertainty surrounding the injury to Aaron Rodgers will loom large for this one. Rodgers should be able to play (after all, he did return to finish the week 17 game against Detroit after briefly exiting), but how effective he’ll be will go a long way to determine the winner of this game. With Rodgers, the Packers should absolutely win this game. Dallas is very good this year, and we would see a large dose of DeMarco Murray to keep Rodgers off the field, but the Packers offense is explosive enough to take advantage of the weaknesses of Dallas’ defense. Also, yes, the Cowboys went 8-0 on the road, but the Packers went 8-0 at home this season. They’re a different beast at Lambeau.
FINAL SCORE: Green Bay 41, Dallas 31
A3 Pittsburgh Steelers at A2 Denver Broncos
There’s just something off with the Broncos right now. Yes, they went 12-4, but it was an unsettling 12-4. Peyton “struggled” through some of the regular season (struggled is in quotes because he still threw for 4,727 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while posting a quarterback rating of 101.5). The run game for Denver, behind RB C.J. Anderson, has been exceptionally good recently, and the Steelers have done little throughout the regular season to cause me to believe they can stop Peyton’s offense, but I just have a feeling the Steelers are going to win this game, especially if Bell can come back in time for this one. There’s really no rational reason. Denver is the better team on paper, and I would love to see another Brady-Manning game as much as anyone, but the Steelers are playing at a very high level right now. Rejoice, Broncos fans. The fact that I think Denver is going to lose their first playoff game pretty much guarantees a Super Bowl win.
FINAL SCORE: Pittsburgh 31, Denver 21
A week one rematch, which the Seahawks won 36-16, is mainly contingent upon the health of Aaron Rodgers. Even with a healthy Rodgers, the Packers will be hard-pressed to find a way to figure out this Seahawks defense. If the game was at Green Bay, I’d probably pick the Packers, but the Packers have proven to be an average team on the road, especially against great defenses (Seattle in week 1, Detroit in week 3, Buffalo in week 14).
FINAL SCORE: Seattle 27, Green Bay 16
A3 Pittsburgh Steelers at A1 New England Patriots
If Le’Veon Bell is still out by this time, or if he’s severely limited for this game, the Patriots could win this one in a laugher. The Patriots secondary, led by CB Darrelle Revis, is good enough to neutralize the effect of Antonio Brown, and Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick is infamous for taking away a team’s top weapon. Brown will be shadowed by Revis every step of the way, and although I’m sure Brown will still be able to make an impact, it won’t be to the same effect as he has been able to have for most of the season.
FINAL SCORE: New England 45, Pittsburgh 24
It’s the obvious pick, but I don’t remember the last time two teams seemed to be playing so much better than everyone else, especially at home. The way these two teams are playing right now, they’re clearly the two best in football. If the Seahawks can win this game, they would immediately be in the discussion for greatest team ever. Beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back Super Bowls does that sort of thing. If the Patriots can win this game, it should end all debate on who the greatest quarterback of all-time is as Brady would win his fourth Super Bowl, matching Montana, in six appearances, including Super Bowl victories a remarkable ten seasons apart. The Patriots will focus their defensive efforts on containing RB Marshawn Lynch, while the Seahawks will need to be able to ride Lynch to keep Brady & Co. off the field. Whoever wins this battle will be at a huge advantage during the game. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength vs. strength, as Tom Brady vs. the Legion of Boom will be a true chess match. Brady typically will struggle when the opposing defense is able to pressure him up the middle, something Seattle excels at, so New England’s offensive line will need to be up to the task. Seattle will need to contain Gronk to slow the Patriots high powered offense, and they may be the team best equipped to do so with the combo of FS Earl Thomas and SS Kam Chancellor patrolling the middle of the field. These teams match up with each other very well, so it should be a close game throughout. It may take a mistake by one of the offenses (or for one of the defenses to force a mistake. With the two best cornerbacks in the game today playing, Revis and CB Richard Sherman, it’s definitely possible) or a big play on special teams to swing the game. Regardless of the final score, a Super Bowl between these two teams could be one for the ages.
FINAL SCORE: New England 23, Seattle 20
Super Bowl MVP: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England
The Divisional Round will take place on Saturday, January 10 and Sunday, January 11. The Conference Championship Round will be played on Sunday, January 18.
Super Bowl XLIX will be played on Sunday, February 1, at 6:30 PM EST on NBC.
Happy New Year and Happy Playoffs.